Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
